Prediction Culture Canceled

Hello, Frens. I hope your break was productive and smooth. I took a good amount of time to recharge, relax, reflect, and look forward.

Traditionally, this time of year is when I’m dropping predictions for the music business and the upcoming year. But I’m not doing that this year.

These lists provide interesting perspectives, but the bottom line is they are superfluous. Pretty much every list I’ve read over the past 10 years missed the two most transformative events of my lifetime: Covid and Web3. If anybody predicted those, please let me know and I’ll rush to read their 2022 predictions.

Recently, The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel and the writings of top tier investors like Warren Buffet have changed my mind about predicting the future: it’s a fool’s game! What you want to do instead is prepare for the future and be situated to act quickly on trends that arise. So right now, rather than making bold, public proclamations, I’m going to be watching, listening, and getting ready to strike.

What I’m watching should be obvious by now. There’s more transformation and opportunity in music than ever. Web3, DAO’s, music rights, and online events are where the action is. Change won’t be instant and innovation takes time, but everywhere I turn, the pillars of culture are crumbling.